ACRA has upgraded the following credit ratings of the bond issue of the Republic of Belarus (hereinafter, Belarus or the country) to BB- under the international scale and BBB(RU) under the national scale for the Russian Federation.
Credit rating rationale. The bond issue listed below represents senior unsecured debt of Belarus, whose credit quality is supported by the relatively high level of economic wealth, moderate public debt, and deep integration with Russia, but is constrained by the relatively low volume of budget and international reserves, risks of materialization of contingent liabilities, weak external position, and limited domestic capital market capacity. In order to upgrade the credit ratings of the bond issue, ACRA took into account certain changes in the credit assessment of Belarus caused by modifications made to the Methodology for Credit Rating Assignment to Sovereign Entities under the International Scale.
In 2024, the Belarusian economy demonstrated a 4% growth due to the satisfaction of both external and domestic demand. According to updated data, the country’s real GDP increased by 2.1% in H1 2025. ACRA is of the opinion that the growth slowdown is logical since the economy is experiencing a shortage in the labor market, while the growth of Russia’s demand for Belarusian goods is likely decelerating. In the specified period, the turnover of foreign trade in goods in foreign currency virtually did not change in value terms. The IT sector, previously one of the drivers of the national economy, is demonstrating signs of potential resumption of growth after a major downturn in 2022–2023; however, it is far from the complete recovery. By August 1, 2025, Belarus’ international reserves reached a historical maximum of USD 11.9 bln, which, however, does not ensure a high, as per global metrics, coverage of imports, external debt in foreign currency, or a short-term portion of such debt. The key factor supporting the recovery of the Belarusian economy is the ongoing integration with Russia, including trade. The credit quality of Belarus will largely depend on its ability to transit to sustainable growth rates in the absence of negative external and internal shocks.
Key issue properties
|
Issue volume |
RUB 10 bln |
|
ISIN |
RU000A1052U9 |
|
Placement start date |
April 6, 2023 |
|
Maturity date |
April 2, 2026 |
Sources: ACRA, issuer’s data
regulatory disclosure
The credit rating has been assigned to the series 08 bond issue (ISIN RU000A1052U9) of the Republic of Belarus under the international scale based on the Methodology for Assigning Credit Ratings to Financial Instruments under the International Scale. The credit rating has been assigned to the series 08 bond issue (ISIN RU000A1052U9) of the Republic of Belarus under the national scale for the Russian Federation based on the Methodology for Mapping Credit Ratings Assigned under ACRA’s International Scale to Credit Ratings Assigned under ACRA’s National Scales. The Key Concepts Used by the Analytical Credit Rating Agency Within the Scope of Its Rating Activities were also applied to assign the credit ratings.
The credit ratings of the series 08 bond issue (ISIN RU000A1052U9) of the Republic of Belarus under the international scale and the national scale for the Russian Federation were published by ACRA for the first time on April 6, 2023. The credit ratings of the series 08 bond issue (ISIN RU000A1052U9) of the Republic of Belarus under the international scale and the national scale for the Russian Federation were disclosed earlier than the dates indicated in the Calendar of sovereign credit rating revisions and publications due to the prompt implementation of procedures to revise the credit ratings. The planned revision date was August 29, 2025, the actual revision date is August 5, 2025. The planned disclosure date was September 3, 2025, the actual disclosure date is August 8, 2025.
The credit ratings are expected to be revised within 182 days following the publication date of this press release as per the Calendar of sovereign credit rating revisions and publications.
The credit ratings were assigned based on data provided by the Republic of Belarus, information from publicly available sources, and ACRA’s own databases. The credit ratings are solicited and the Government of the Republic of Belarus participated in their assignment.
In assigning the credit ratings, ACRA used only information, the quality and reliability of which were, in ACRA’s opinion, appropriate and sufficient to apply the methodologies.
ACRA provided no additional services to the Government of the Republic of Belarus. No conflicts of interest were discovered in the course of credit rating assignment.
