The credit rating of MONOPOLY JSC (hereinafter, the Company, or Monopoly) has been downgraded in view of lower scores for the Company’s size, leverage and cash flow. On the backdrop of excessive offer from trucking companies, freight rates fell, so that the current market conditions put pressure on the Company’s financial performance in 2024 and H1 2025. At the same time, the Agency is still of a high opinion on the Company’s operational risk profile, noting its strong positions in the digital freight segment, as well as the strong business profile and corporate governance. The financial risk profile is assessed as medium and supported by the assessments of profitability and liquidity.
The credit rating outlook has been changed from Stable to Developing to reflect risks associated to the deviation of growth rates of financial metrics from the projected ones for 2025–2026, due to uncertainty about the time frames of market recovery.
Monopoly is a digital logistics platform that brings together cargo shippers and carriers using specific services and technologies. The platform allows carriers to find a cargo and deliver it on their own (the Monopoly Cargo business segment) and sole proprietors to rent a truck from the Company’s partners, provided that they continue to use the cargo search platform (Monopoly Business). Monopoly also provides transportation services for cargoes posted on the platform using its own fleet of trucks (Monopoly Trucking), develops Monopoly Fuel, a multi-service ecosystem for carriers (fuel processing, roadside services, etc.), and the Smart Logistics TMS system acquired in 2024.
key assessment factors
Operational risk profile and revenue diversification. The Company continues its strategy of transition to the “light assets” model, consistently reducing the share of revenue from trucking in favor of the Monopoly Business and Monopoly Cargo segments, while selling its own fleet of trucks. Due to the freight market crisis that began in 2024 and aggravated this year, Monopoly's financial results for 2024 turned out to be worse than the Agency’s expectations, which required a revision of the forecast for 2025. The Agency notes that during the crisis period, the “light assets” areas of the Monopoly platform have demonstrated the greatest stability, while the segment of traditional trucking has been showing negative gross profits since mid-2024. Reducing this segment’s share in the total revenue of the Company allowed the Agency to elevate the score for revenue diversification from medium to high.
ACRA expects that H2 2025 may be moderately positive for the Company. This assumption is based on the positive trend in Monopoly’s freight rates, which has been observed since March 2025, as well as on the progress on the transfer of trucks to the Monopoly Business segment. The Agency also believes that due to the presence of a developed digital environment, Monopoly may become one of the beneficiaries of changes in the industry regulations, involving, among other things, the transition to mandatory digital document management in 2026.
The Company has started to disclose its consolidated IFRS financial statements and various materials for investors, which has improved the financial transparency assessment.
Very high profitability and small business size. In 2024, FFO before fixed charges and taxes and the FFO before fixed charges and taxes margin plunged against the background of crisis phenomena in the industry. The Agency expects these metrics to start recovering in H2 2025 and believes that the growth of the share of the Monopoly Business and Monopoly Cargo segments in the Company’s revenues will be positive for the profitability.
The 2022–2027 weighted average FFO before fixed charges and taxes is estimated by ACRA at RUB 4.2 bln.
Medium leverage and low coverage of fixed charges. The Company’s loan portfolio is well diversified and consists of bank loans, bonds, and leasing and factoring liabilities. In 2024, the Company’s leverage surged on the backdrop of declining FFO before fixed charges. Due to crisis phenomena seen in the classical trucking market in late 2024 and in 2025, the Company’s strategy to reduce the leverage will be implemented slowly than it seemed previously. Since Monopoly has made a decision to switch to the “light assets” business model and is selling its own fleet of trucks, ACRA expects that cash flows from such sale will be used to reduce the debt. According to the Agency’s estimates, in case of a successful implementation of the abovementioned plans, the weighted average ratio of rent-adjusted total debt to FFO before fixed charges for the period from 2022 to 2027 will be 3.6x.
The coverage of fixed payments is estimated as low: by the end of 2024, the ratio of FFO before fixed charges to fixed charges was significantly less than 1.0x. The Agency expects that, against the background of the key interest rate cuts and a decline in the Company’s debt, the coverage will begin to recover in H2 2025. The weighted average ratio of FFO before fixed charges to fixed charges for the period from 2022 to 2027 is estimated by ACRA at 1.0x. ACRA notes that the coverage of fixed charges is very sensitive to deviations from the announced deadline and prices of the truck fleet sale.
Medium liquidity and weak cash flow. The Company’s liquidity level is estimated as medium. Monopoly benefits from undrawn credit limits, the debt repayment schedule does not imply significant peaks, and in January 2026 the Company will have to repay a bond issue for RUB 3 bln. On June 30, 2025, Monopoly was in breach of a number of covenants under bank loan agreements, which, however, did not give rise to obligations to prepay loans. The Agency notes that an important liquidity source for the Company is the sale of trucks as part of the strategy of transition to the “light assets” model.
The Company’s free cash flow (FCF) is still negative. ACRA assumes that in the best case scenario, the FCF margin may move into the positive area in 2026. The Agency estimates the weighted average indicator for the period from 2022 to 2027 at -27%.
The level of capital expenses is estimated as low: the Agency expects that the bulk of investments will be aimed at maintaining and developing the Monopoly platform. The weighted average capex to revenue ratio for the period from 2022 to 2027 is estimated by ACRA at 11.0%.
key assumptions
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Net proceeds from the sale of the Company’s transport assets, due to its regularity and the availability of a guarantee of their purchase from counterparties, are viewed by the Agency as operating income and taken into account in the calculation of operating cash flow.
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To assess profitability and cash flow, ACRA used the Company’s net revenue, which does not include income from costs transferred to counterparties.
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Expenses for purchasing transport vehicles for further transfer to the Monopoly Business segment are considered by the Agency as operational expenses.
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Maintaining the strategy aimed at reducing the share of trucking services in revenues and sale of a significant part of the Company’s truck fleet.
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Maintaining the current partnership formats with leasing companies.
Potential outlook or rating change factors
The Developing outlook assumes a variety of trends: the rating may stay unchanged, be upgraded or downgraded within the 12 to 18-month horizon.
A positive rating action may be prompted by:
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Ratio of FFO before fixed charges to fixed charges exceeding 3.0x;
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Weighted average ratio of rent-adjusted total debt to FFO before fixed charges declining below 3.5x.
A negative rating action may be prompted by:
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The market recovery at a pace slower than expected by the Company;
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Deviation from the announced deadlines and prices of the truck fleet sales;
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Termination of the current partnership formats with leasing companies;
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Other large players entering the market, which may significantly reduce the Company’s market share;
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Weighted average FFO before fixed charges and taxes margin falling below 30%;
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Weighted average ratio of rent-adjusted total debt to FFO before fixed charges exceeding 5.0x;
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Weighted average FFO before fixed charges to fixed charges falling below 1.0x;
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Weighted average capex to net revenue far exceeding 10%.
rating components
Standalone creditworthiness assessment (SCA): bbb.
Support: none.
issue ratings
No outstanding issues have been rated.
regulatory disclosure
The credit rating has been assigned under the national scale for the Russian Federation based on the Methodology for Credit Ratings Assignment to Non-Financial Corporations under the National Scale for the Russian Federation and the Key Concepts Used by the Analytical Credit Rating Agency within the Scope of Its Rating Activities.
The credit rating of MONOPOLY JSC was published by ACRA for the first time on September 11, 2024. The credit rating of MONOPOLY JSC and its outlook is expected to be revised within one year following the publication date of this press release.
The credit rating was assigned based on data provided by MONOPOLY JSC, information from publicly available sources, and ACRA’s own databases. The credit rating is solicited and MONOPOLY JSC participated in its assignment.
In assigning the credit rating, ACRA used only information, the quality and reliability of which were, in ACRA’s opinion, appropriate and sufficient to apply the methodologies.
ACRA provided no additional services to MONOPOLY JSC. No conflicts of interest were discovered in the course of credit rating assignment.
