The credit rating of LLC “Aston Group” (hereinafter, the Company or the Group) is based on the medium assessment of the Company’s market position and its below-medium size, moderately high assessment of the business profile, and medium assessment of geographic diversification and corporate governance. The very high business profitability, low leverage, high coverage and strong liquidity support the credit rating. At the same time, the rating is constrained by the very high industry risk and weak assessment of cash flow.
LLC “Aston Group” is a residential and commercial real estate developer. The Company builds residential housing in Yekaterinburg, Novosibirsk, and Tyumen, and also develops commercial projects in Moscow and the Moscow Region, which helps reduce the concentration risk. According to the Unified Resource of Developers, as of September 2025, the volume of the Company’s current construction was 184,400 sq. m.
KEY ASSESSMENT FACTORS
Very high industry risk. According to the Agency’s methodology, the very high risk of the housing construction industry is a serious restraining factor for the Group’s credit rating.
Results for 2024 and seven months of 2025. The Company’s revenues declined by 14.4% in 2024 (to RUB 8.5 bln) year-on-year due to lower volumes of construction and sales of residential real estate. At the same time, financial revenues for 2024 included income of RUB 3.05 bln from a major deal to acquire and then sell a short-term financial asset. As of the end of 7M 2025, the volume of sales of the Company’s residential real estate in monetary terms was 6.7% less than the indicator for the same period last year. Substantial growth of sales was recorded in the commercial real estate segment — over seven months of this year, sales were close to the result for all of last year in monetary terms. The Agency expects the Group’s revenues to record moderate growth this year amid stronger metrics for sale of commercial real estate.
High profitability and small size. When calculating FFO before interest and taxes, ACRA transfers dividend income from leasing companies from the financial flow to the operating flow, since these assets generate income over several years, which makes them more predictable and allows them to be taken into account in the operating cash flow. As a result of this adjustment, the FFO margin before interest and taxes was 46% in 2024. In the Agency’s opinion, the weighted average FFO margin before interest and taxes for 2022–2027 was 33.5%, while the weighted average ratio of commercial, general and administrative expenses to revenues at 11% indicates the Company’s high profitability. According to ACRA’s calculations, the weighted average FFO before net interest payments and taxes will be RUB 3.5 bln, which when coupled with the volume of the of the portfolio of projects under construction (184,400 sq. m as of September 1, 2025) corresponds to a small size of business as per the Agency’s methodology.
The medium assessment of geographic diversification is explained by the fact that the Company, as before, is building residential real estate in three regions of the Russian Federation, while the share of sales in each of the regions is below 70% of the total volume of expected sales.
Continued low leverage and high coverage assessments. In its calculations of the ratio of net debt to FFO before interest and taxes, ACRA adjusts the total debt by the amount of debt raised as part of project financing under escrow accounts and fully secured by funds transferred to escrow accounts by buyers. The weighted average ratio of adjusted net debt to FFO before net interest for 2022 to 2027 is estimated by the Agency at 1.8x, which continues to indicate low leverage. The Group’s debt is entirely denominated in rubles (provided mainly at fixed rates), while the structure of creditors is sufficiently diversified. The weighted average ratio of FFO before net interest payments to net interest payments for 2022 to 2026 is estimated by ACRA at 5.6x.
High liquidity assessment and weak cash flow assessment. The high assessment of the Company’s liquidity is driven by the presence of a sufficient volume of cash in accounts and unused open credit lines, as well as access to external sources of funding coupled with a comfortable repayment schedule for general corporate debt Significant dividend payments in 2024 had a negative impact on the free cash flow assessment.
Key assumptions
-
Projects and sales implemented as planned;
-
ACRA’s estimates include only projects being constructed and planned in accordance with the Company’s current financial plan;
-
No significant decline in prices in the primary real estate markets of the Group’s regions of operation in 2025–2027.
Potential outlook or rating change factors
The Stable outlook assumes that the rating will highly likely stay unchanged within the 12 to 18-month horizon.
A positive rating action may be prompted by:
- The weighted average ratio of adjusted net debt to FFO before net interest payments declining below 1.0x coupled with the weighted average ratio of FFO before net interest payments to net interest payments exceeding 8.0x and stable growth of weighted average FFO before net interest payments and taxes to over RUB 5 bln.
A negative rating action may be prompted by:
-
Weighted average ratio of FFO before net interest payments to net interest payments declining below 5.0x;
-
Weighted average ratio of net debt to FFO before net interest payments exceeding 2.0x;
-
Residential real estate prices decreasing by more than 15% in the primary markets of the Company’s regions of presence in 2025–2027;
-
Regulatory changes capable of having a material adverse effect on the Group’s performance.
Rating components
Standalone creditworthiness assessment (SCA): bbb-.
Adjustments: none.
Issue ratings
No outstanding issues have been rated.
Regulatory disclosure
The credit rating has been assigned to LLC “Aston Group” under the national scale for the Russian Federation based on the Methodology for Assigning Credit Ratings to Non-Financial Corporations under the National Scale for the Russian Federation and the Key Concepts Used by the Analytical Credit Rating Agency within the Scope of Its Rating Activities.
The credit rating of LLC “Aston Group” was published by ACRA for the first time on October 5, 2022. The credit rating and its outlook are expected to be revised within one year following the publication date of this press release.
The credit rating was assigned based on data provided by LLC “Aston Group”, information from publicly available sources, and ACRA’s own databases. The credit rating is solicited and LLC “Aston Group” participated in its assignment.
In assigning the credit rating, ACRA used only information, the quality and reliability of which were, in ACRA’s opinion, appropriate and sufficient to apply the methodologies.
ACRA provided no additional services to LLC “Aston Group”. No conflicts of interest were discovered in the course of credit rating assignment.
