ACRA has affirmed the following ratings to the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan (hereinafter, Kazakhstan) under the international scale:
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Long-term foreign currency credit rating at ВВВ+ and local currency credit rating at ВВВ+;
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Short-term foreign currency credit rating at S2 and local currency credit rating at S2.
The outlook on the long-term foreign currency credit rating is Stable and local currency credit rating is Stable.
Positive rating assessment factors
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Active growth of the economy supported by a wide range of industries.
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Moderate volume and favorable structure of public debt.
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Strengthening of sub-factors including institutional environment, reforms in the public sector and economic policy.
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Improvement of the import reserve coverage and the foreign currency and external public debt.
Negative rating assessment factors
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Low industrial diversification, dependence on raw materials for industrial production and commodity exports.
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Consistently high inflation, which led to an extended period of high interest rates in the economy.
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Higher interest payments as part of government budget expenditures.
credit rating rationale
Kazakhstan’s sovereign credit rating (BBB+) is supported by the following fundamental factors: moderate public debt, a significant amount of liquid assets in the National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan (NFRK), growth of international reserves of the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK), and stable economic growth rates in real terms, consistency and adequacy of the currency regime. The rating continues to be constrained by a low level of export diversification, the risk of contingent liabilities materializing, the ratio of public debt to budget revenues, high inflation and dynamics of interest expenditures.
Macroeconomics
ACRA expects Kazakhstan’s economy to grow fast this year. The Agency also notes a gradual increase in the diversification of the industrial sector: oil and natural gas production accounted for 31.5% of total industrial production last year (vs. 34.2% in 2023 and 39.7% in 2022). In 2025, as oil production grows, the process of increasing diversification will be less noticeable, which, however, will not affect active growth in the manufacturing industries. At the same time, risks in logistics and the transportation of mineral exports in foreign trade that materialized in 2022–2023 have given way to growing price uncertainty and increasing competitive pressure.
In the Agency’s opinion, this year, Kazakhstan’s economy is still characterized by heightened inflation and moderately tight monetary policy. The economic growth in real terms may reach 6% by the end of the year.
Public finance
After the 2024 state budget deficit of 2.6%, ACRA expects the deficit to be 2.9% of GDP this year, and public debt, excluding the state guarantees and the debt of the NBK, may amount to 23.4% of GDP. In the Agency’s view, public debt is moderate. There are signs of pro-cyclicality of the budget policy, upward trend in the share of interest payments in budget expenditures, as well as growing volatility in budget revenues in general.
Transfers from the NFRK continue to play an important role in maintaining a balanced budget, while the acquisition of stakes in state-owned corporations using NFRK funds in 2023 and 2024 increased the dependence of the state budget on raw material revenues from the public sector. ACRA notes that such tranches replenish the country’s budget, but are not recorded in statistics as the use of sovereign reserves, and will monitor for similar purchases in the future in order to analyze a possible deterioration in the sovereign reserve factor.
As of the end of 2024, the NFRK’s foreign currency assets amounted to 23% of the GDP and covered 87% of public debt (excluding NBK debt). In September 2025, respective indicators amounted to 19.5% and 82% of the GDP projected by the end of 2025. Regardless the decline in these indicators, NFRK assets continue to be a reliable safety cushion for Kazakhstan’s public finances.
External position
Kazakhstan’s balance of payments remains prone to risks associated with both the sectoral structure of foreign trade and the dynamics of payment of primary earnings, the volume of which is similar to the country’s net exports. At the same time, the structure of liabilities for the financial account and investment inflow dynamics indicate that the focus is shifting from direct investments to portfolio investments.
ACRA also views as positive factors the stability of the foreign currency regime and a significant amount of international reserves, which for 2024 grew by 28% and in September 2024 to September 2025 — by 29.4%. As a result, as of September 2025, the coverage ratio for imports of goods and services was eight to nine months of this year’s import, which is also positively viewed by the Agency.
Institutional framework
Weak public institutions, insufficient efficiency of government institutions and limited quality of public governance have a negative impact on Kazakhstan’s business climate. However, the Agency notes that public and government institutions have undergone a number of positive changes: stronger political competition, renewal of political institutions, the constitutional reforms of 2022, upcoming reforms of the country’s parliament, and a strengthening of dialog between the state and society. In addition, ACRA positively assesses the reforms in the financial sector, including digitalization, which involves introduction of a digital tenge, and active development of the competitive environment (including the Directive of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan On Measures to Liberalize the Economy).
The quality of Kazakhstan’s human capital that determines the long-term basis for economic development and strengthens the diversification of industry and foreign trade is assessed as relatively high. ACRA positively views the intermediate results of the reforms and notes commitment to pursue all goals in the economy and political affairs.
SOVEREIGN MODEL APPLICATION RESULTS
Kazakhstan has been assigned an A- Indicative credit rating in accordance with the core part of ACRA’s sovereign model. A number of modifiers positively affect the Indicative credit rating. These include the following, which are determined by the Methodology for Credit Rating Assignment to Sovereign Entities under the International Scale:
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Potential economic growth;
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Sovereign funds.
A negative adjustment has been made for the following modifiers:
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Quality and sustainability of economic growth;
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Effectiveness of the monetary policy;
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Contingent liabilities and the risk of their implementation;
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Fiscal policy and budget flexibility.
In view of the abovementioned modifiers, Kazakhstan’s Final credit rating is BBB+. There are no analytical adjustments and limitations that could result in an adjustment of the Final rating. In connection with this, the long-term foreign currency credit rating has been affirmed at BBB+.
potential outlook or rating change factors
The Stable outlook assumes that the rating will highly likely stay unchanged within the 12 to 18-month horizon.
A positive rating action may be prompted by:
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Reforms that have a significant positive impact on the efficiency of public governance and the stability of government bodies in the long term and, in particular, strengthen the budget discipline and the quality of budget planning.
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Much lower dependence of the economy on commodities in both industrial production and goods exports thanks to active development of industries and services that are not associated with commodities, growth of net exports of goods and services, and replenishment of international reserves.
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Adoption of the decisions that considerably improve the long-term stability of public finances, lower dependence of the state budget on NFRK assets, lower rigidity of budget expenditures, minimization of signs of state budget’s pro-cyclicality.
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Better industry structure and foreign currency value of the external debt.
A negative rating action may be prompted by:
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Significant and protracted economic slowdown.
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Weakening of the inflow of foreign investments and/or a sharp increase of payments for primary and secondary current account revenues, and destabilization of the currency regime.
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Significant decline in national reserves and increase in the public and quasi-public debt costs, further growth of the ratio of debt service to budget revenues and the country’s GDP.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURE
The credit ratings have been assigned to the Republic of Kazakhstan based on the following methodologies: the Methodology for Credit Rating Assignment to Sovereign Entities under the International Scale to calculate the SCA and determine the credit rating and the credit rating outlook of the Republic of Kazakhstan under the international scale; the Key Concepts Used by the Analytical Credit Rating Agency Within the Scope of Its Rating Activities to ensure consistent and uniform application of ACRA’s methodologies, models, and key rating assumptions.
The credit ratings of the Republic of Kazakhstan under the international scale were published by ACRA for the first time on September 24, 2019. The credit ratings of the Republic of Kazakhstan under the international scale of short-term credit ratings were published by ACRA for the first time on September 24, 2019.
The credit ratings and their outlooks are expected to be revised within 182 days as per the Calendar of sovereign credit rating revisions and publications.
The credit ratings are assigned based on information from the Republic of Kazakhstan and publicly available sources, and ACRA’s own databases.
The credit ratings are unsolicited. The Republic of Kazakhstan participated in the credit rating assignment.
In assigning the credit ratings, ACRA used only information, the quality and reliability of which were, in ACRA’s opinion, appropriate and sufficient to apply the methodologies.
ACRA provided no additional services to the Republic of Kazakhstan during the year preceding the rating action.
No conflicts of interest were discovered in the course of the credit rating assignment.
Rating components: the standalone creditworthiness assessment is equal to the credit rating and corresponds to bbb+.
