The credit rating of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug (hereinafter, the Region) is based on the Region’s low debt load, high self-sufficiency of the budget, and high performance indicators of the regional economy.
Being a standalone administrative entity of the Russian Federation, the Region is part of the Tyumen Region1 and is located in the Ural Federal District. The Region is a Far North territory with more than half of its area lying beyond the Arctic Circle. It produces the largest share of Russian natural gas output. According to the Region’s estimates, its nominal gross regional product (GRP) amounted to RUB 5.8 tln in 2025. The Region’s population accounts for about 0.4% of Russia’s population.
KEY ASSESSMENT FACTORS
High budget self-sufficiency. The dynamics of the Region’s corporate tax revenues depend, to a certain extent, on external factors. Property tax revenues, which occupy the second largest share in the structure of tax and non-tax revenues (TNTR), help stabilize the dynamics of revenues from this tax.
The Region's budget deficit for 2025 hit the historic high, and to cover it, most of accumulated liquidity was utilized along with the proceeds from a bond issue and a budget loan (to a lesser degree). Such a significant deficit is a result of declining revenues from corporate income tax; on the other hand, ACRA notes that the Region has managed to cut expenditures although slightly.
This year, the Region also anticipates a significant budget deficit on the back of a certain growth of revenues, which, however, is insufficient to cover the entire volume of expenditures.
The share of internal revenues in the Region’s budget is high, the averaged2 share of the Region’s TNTR in its total revenues, excluding subventions, will be 91.4% for 2022–2026.
1 A certain share of corporate income tax revenues collected in the Region goes to the budget of the Tyumen Region (set to 29.5% by the agreement between the Tyumen Region and the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug).
2 Hereinafter, averages are calculated according to the Methodology for Assigning Credit Ratings to Regions and Municipal Entities under the National Scale for the Russian Federation.
The operational efficiency of the Region’s budget is high, as the averaged ratio of the current account balance to current revenues is sustainably positive and will amount to 24% for 2022–2026. The ratio of the averaged modified budget deficit to averaged current revenues for the above period will be -12%, which corresponds to the fourth category, but is adjusted to the second category due to the low debt load (less than 35%). The averaged share of capital expenditures in the total expenditures is above 30%.
The quality assessment of the flexibility of the Region’s budget expenditures belongs to the second category. This is due to the high proportion of capital expenditures financed by the Region on its own and the annual positive value of the current account balance after interest payments. The need to increase capital expenditures is associated with the fact that most of the Region’s territory experiences harsh climatic conditions. The value of the modified free cash flow of the Region varies significantly from year to year due to the volatility of major revenue items.
The quality assessment of the budget profile corresponds to the maximum level. This is due to the moderate accuracy of budget planning, the availability of budgetary measures that stimulate the economy, the absence of violations of budget laws that could affect the budget profile, and a significant volume of tax benefits.
Low debt load. The ratio of debt to current revenues was 15% as of the end of 2025, which indicates a low debt load. The share of short-term debt was not assessed at the beginning of 2026 due to the low debt load. Public debt servicing costs are not burdensome for the Region’s budget.
The quality assessment of the debt load is at the maximum level. As of the beginning of 2026, the average debt repayment period was less than four years due to the placement of a bond issue with a short duration. Debt includes bond issue and budget loans, as well as state guarantees. The Region issues state guarantees for loans granted as part of infrastructure projects of PJSC DOM.RF (ACRA rating AAA(RU), outlook Stable). There are no overdue payables, and the current account balance is positive. ACRA notes that the public sector has overdue payables. The Region’s indirect liabilities under the existing PPP agreements are insignificant for the Region’s budget. Debt of the Region’s municipalities is zero.
Declining budget liquidity. The Region’s budget liquidity ratio (as per ACRA’s methodology) will amount to 23% by the end of this year, which is due, on the one hand, to a decrease in the amount of available liquidity spent to finance the budget deficit and, on the other hand, to the high volume of additional funds planned to be raised.
The quality assessment of the liquidity profile corresponds to the second category. This is due to the presence of a public credit history; a decrease in the average ratio of account balances to monthly budget expenditures; the need to attract additional financing; low debt refinancing risks; insignificant dynamics of accounts payable.
The Region is a contributor to the federal budget, accounting for the largest share of Russia’s natural gas output. The Region’s economic profile assessment is determined by the high GRP per capita: the averaged GRP per capita was almost 10 times higher than the averaged value for the national economy in 2020–2023.
In 2021–2024, the ratio of the averaged wage to the averaged regional subsistence minimum amounted to 6.4, and the unemployment rate estimated as per the ILO’s methodology was lower than 3% in the past four years.
The Region’s economy is centered on the extraction and sale of hydrocarbons, which generates about half of its tax revenues.
The Region is one of the core contributors to the federal budget. In 2024, 88% of taxes and charges collected in the Region was transferred to the federal budget, with just 12% remaining in the Region’s consolidated budget.
KEY ASSUMPTIONS
- Maintaining high socioeconomic indicators of the Region;
- Executing the 2026 budget in line with the current budget law.
POTENTIAL OUTLOOK OR RATING CHANGE FACTORS
The Stable outlook assumes that the rating will highly likely stay unchanged within the 12 to 18-month horizon.
A negative rating action may be prompted by:
- The ratio of debt to current revenues exceeding 35%;
- Lower ratio of current account balance to current revenues;
- Worse quality assessments of the financial profile.
RATING components
Standalone creditworthiness assessment (SCA): aaa.
ISSUE RATINGS
Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, 34005 (ISIN RU000A10DMS9); maturity date: December 1, 2028, issue volume: RUB 36 bln — AAA(RU).
Rationale. In ACRA’s opinion, the bond issue is a senior unsecured debt instrument, and its credit rating is equal to that of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug. As per ACRA’s methodology, the simplified approach was applied, according to which the recovery rate for the issue corresponds to category II, and therefore the credit rating of the issue is on par with the Region’s credit rating — AAA(RU).
REGULATORY DISCLOSURE
The credit ratings have been assigned to the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug and the issue of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug based on the following methodologies: the Methodology for Assigning Credit Ratings to Regions and Municipal Entities under the National Scale for the Russian Federation to calculate the SCA and determine the credit rating and the credit rating outlook of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug under the national scale for the Russian Federation, Methodology for Assigning Credit Ratings to Financial Instruments under the National Scale for the Russian Federation to determine the credit rating of the bond issue under the national scale for the Russian Federation, and the Key Concepts Used by the Analytical Credit Rating Agency within the Scope of Its Rating Activities to ensure consistent and uniform application of ACRA’s methodologies, rating scales, models, and key rating assumptions.
The credit ratings of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug and the issue of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug (ISIN RU000A10DMS9) assigned under the national scale for the Russian Federation were published for the first time on June 27, 2018 and December 2, 2025, respectively.
The credit rating and its outlook, as well as the credit rating of the issue, are expected to be revised within 182 days as per the Calendar of sovereign credit rating revisions and publications.
The credit ratings were assigned based on data provided by the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, information from publicly available sources (the Ministry of Finance, the Federal State Statistics Service, and the Federal Tax Service), and ACRA’s own databases. The rating analysis was performed using the RAS accounting (financial) statements of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug as of January 1, 2026.
The credit ratings are unsolicited and the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug participated in their assignment.
In assigning the credit ratings, ACRA used only information, the quality and reliability of which were, in ACRA’s opinion, appropriate and sufficient to apply the methodologies.
ACRA provided no additional services to the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug during the year preceding the rating action.
No conflicts of interest were discovered in the course of credit rating assignment.
