The credit rating of Tomsk (hereinafter, Tomsk or the City) is based on the low debt load, significant refinancing risks of debt obligations, moderately high share of capital expenditures, and stable indicators of the City’s economic development with limited possibilities to increase the budget revenue base. The rating is constrained by the moderately low accumulated liquidity and significant dependence of the City’s revenues on budget transfers from the Tomsk Region (ACRA rating: BBB+(RU), outlook Stable, hereinafter, the Tomsk Region).
Tomsk is the administrative center of the Tomsk Region, which is part of the Siberian Federal District. According to the City’s estimates, it had an average population of 565,000 in 2024. ACRA assumes that Tomsk accounts for about 50% of the Tomsk Region’s shipped products annually.
key assessment factors
Declining operational efficiency of the budget coupled with a growing need to use additional financing. As of the end of 2025, the tax and non-tax revenues (TNTR) of the City’s budget had increased by 8% compared to the year before. The most significant contribution to the growth of internal revenues was the increase in personal income tax revenues. Nevertheless, despite the decline in transfers, total revenues declined slightly. Budget expenditures increased. The deficit at the end of last year was equivalent to 31% of TNTR (before possible exceptions).
According to the current version of the budget resolution, revenues may decrease by 3% in 2026 compared to 2025: internal revenues will continue to grow, while transfers may decline by approximately 11%. Expenditures are planned to be reduced by 9%. In this case, the deficit by the end of this year could reach 13% of TNTR (before possible exceptions). The City plans to finance the expected deficit through debt and the use of accumulated liquidity.
The averaged1 ratio of the current account balance to current revenues will be -1% in 2022–2026. The current account balance may be positive, although insignificant in magnitude by the end of 2026, which indicates that the City’s current revenues are sufficient to finance the entire volume of planned current expenditures in 2026.
The share of capital expenditures in the City’s total expenditures (excluding subventions) is estimated as moderately high. The averaged value of this indicator will be 13% for 2022–2026. The quality assessment of the flexibility of budget expenditures corresponds to the fourth category. Capital expenditures are annually financed largely at the expense of the higher budget, which also explains the possibility of only limited reductions if necessary. The current account balance after taking into account interest income and expenditures is stably positive (excluding the indicator at the end of last year, as well as the indicator expected at the end of this year) thanks to which interest expenditures are usually covered using the City’s current revenues. The modified free cash flow indicator of the City’s budget is quite volatile, which indicates a periodic need to finance capital expenditures using additional funds.
The averaged share of TNTR in Tomsk’s revenues (excluding subventions) will be 56% for 2022–2026, which corresponds to a moderate level of internal revenues and shows that the City is heavily dependent on the higher budget. The ratio of the averaged modified budget deficit (MBD) to current revenues for the above period will be -5%, which indicates the budget’s continuing moderate need to use additional financing. The Agency has adjusted the MBD to current revenue ratio to a higher category due to the City’s low debt load.
The qualitative assessment of the City’s budget profile corresponds to the second category. Budget forecasting is complicated because transfers from the senior budget account for the lion’s share of revenues. Besides this, there are cases of significant deviation of tax revenues from targets. The volume of lost tax revenues related to the application of tax benefits is insignificant for the budget of Tomsk.
1 Hereinafter, averages are calculated according to the Methodology for Assigning Credit Ratings to Regions and Municipal Entities under the National Scale for the Russian Federation.
Low but growing debt load and significant refinancing risks of debt obligations. As of the end of 2025, the debt of Tomsk increased by 66% to RUB 7.7 bln, or 30% of current revenues. As of the start of this year, bank loans accounted for 70% of Tomsk’s debt, bonds accounted for just under 16%, and budget loans accounted for just over 14%. According to the debt repayment schedule as of January 1, 2026, this year the City will have to repay 48% of its debt, 40% in 2027, and then around 1% annually.
This year the City has already repaid part of its bank loan debt, as a result of which the volume of debt had declined by 11% as of February 1, 2026. However, according to the City’s plans, the volume of debt may increase by the end of 2026 by 17% compared to the start of the year. ACRA assumes that due to the presence of funds in accounts, such a large amount of borrowings may not be needed and the debt load in 2026 may remain low. At the same time, the ratio of debt to current revenues may approach the threshold of 35%, which, in turn may impact the City’s credit rating. Interest expenditures are not burdensome and the ratio of interest expenditures to total expenditures (excluding subventions) averaged over 2022–2026 will amount to 3%.
The qualitative assessment of the debt portfolio of Tomsk corresponds to the second category. The weighted average debt repayment period as of the start of 2026 exceeded two years. ACRA notes that the City’s debt policy does not contribute to reducing debt liability refinancing risks. However, the City’s debt is well diversified by instruments. The operational efficiency of the budget is consistently positive (with the exception of the indicator for 2025), which generally evidences that there is no need to finance current expenditures using liquidity or debt. In ACRA’s opinion, the financial debt of Tomsk’s public sector companies is insignificant. According to the City, there were no cases of overdue debt liabilities as of January 1, 2026.
Balances in accounts halved in 2025. The significant budget deficit that formed at the end of last year was financed including at the expense of accumulated liquidity. As of January 1, 2026, funds in the City’s accounts amounted to the equivalent of 19% of the debt subject to repayment this year and 26% of the average monthly expenditures last year. This year, the City plans to finance its expected budget deficit mainly by using debt, although it will also spend accumulated liquidity.
The liquidity ratio of the City’s budget will amount to 29% by the end of 2026.
The qualitative assessment of the liquidity profile of the City’s budget corresponds to the third category. Tomsk actively obtains funds in the debt market by issuing bonds. Liability refinancing risks are assessed as significant since the City has a considerable volume of commercial debt repayments scheduled for the next two years. The City is currently unable to use short-term loans from the Federal Treasury Department due to restrictions imposed by the Tomsk Region; revolving credit lines are used to cover short-term financing needs. At the same time, as of the end of the year, Tomsk had undrawn credit lines with a term of more than a year, the volume of which slightly exceeded RUB 900 mln.
Comparatively high economic development indicators. The highly diversified manufacturing sector accounted for the largest share (over 40%) in the industry structure of shipped products according to data for 2024. The City has well-developed industries that produce electrical equipment, chemicals, and food. The industry with the second largest share — transportation and storage — accounted for around 31% of shipped products in 2024.
The share of the City’s 10 largest taxpayers in the total tax revenues of the budget did not exceed 15% in 2025.
According to ACRA’s estimates, the ratio of the averaged per capita GRP of the Tomsk Region generated in the City and the national average per capita GRP of Russian regions for 2020–2023 could be 78%. The ratio of the averaged nominal salary for the City as a whole to the subsistence minimum exceeded 3.0 for 2021–2024. As per the City’s socioeconomic development forecast, the official unemployment rate in the City amounted to 0.3% in 2024. The averaged estimated unemployment rate (as per the ILO’s methodology) could be about 1.9% in the aforementioned period.
KEY ASSUMPTIONS
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Around 50% of the Tomsk Region’s shipped goods is produced in the City;
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Raising less debt than stipulated by the current version of the budget law to finance the expected budget deficit;
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Continued significant dependence of the City’s budget on transfers from the higher budget.
POTENTIAL OUTLOOK OR RATING CHANGE FACTORS
The Stable outlook assumes that the rating will highly likely stay unchanged within the 12 to 18-month horizon.
A positive rating action may be prompted by:
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Increased share of internal revenues in the budget;
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Lower need for additional financing;
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Significant increase of the balances in the City’s accounts.
A negative rating action may be prompted by:
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Budget debt load growing to over 35% of current revenues;
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Stable decline of the budget’s operational efficiency.
RATING COMPONENTS
Standalone creditworthiness assessment (SCA): bbb+.
ISSUE RATINGS
Tomsk, 34009 (ISIN RU000A10A6J1), maturity: December 12, 2026, issue volume: RUB 1.2 bln — ВВВ+(RU).
Rationale. In ACRA’s opinion, the bond issue of Tomsk is a senior unsecured debt instrument, the credit rating of which corresponds to the credit rating of Tomsk. As per ACRA’s methodology, the simplified approach was used to determine the credit rating, according to which the level of recovery for the issue corresponds to category II, and therefore the credit rating of the issue is the same as the credit rating of the City — BBB+(RU).
REGULATORY DISCLOSURE
The credit ratings have been assigned to Tomsk and the issue of Tomsk based on the following methodologies: the Methodology for Assigning Credit Ratings to Regions and Municipal Entities under the National Scale for the Russian Federation to calculate the SCA and determine the credit rating and the credit rating outlook of Tomsk under the national scale for the Russian Federation, Methodology for Assigning Credit Ratings to Financial Instruments under the National Scale for the Russian Federation to determine the credit rating of the bond issue under the national scale for the Russian Federation, and the Key Concepts Used by the Analytical Credit Rating Agency within the Scope of Its Rating Activities to ensure consistent and uniform application of ACRA’s methodologies, rating scales, models, and key rating assumptions.
The credit rating of Tomsk assigned under the national scale for the Russian Federation was published by ACRA for the first time on June 17, 2020. The credit rating of the issue (ISIN RU000A10A6J1) assigned under the national scale for the Russian Federation was published by ACRA for the first time on November 28, 2024.
The credit rating of Tomsk and its outlook, as well as the credit ratings of the issue, are expected to be revised within 182 days as per the Calendar of sovereign credit rating revisions and publications.
The credit rating was assigned based on data provided by Tomsk, information from publicly available sources (the Ministry of Finance, the Federal State Statistics Service, and the Federal Tax Service), and ACRA’s own databases. The rating analysis was performed using the RAS accounting (financial) statements of Tomsk as of January 1, 2026.
The credit ratings are solicited and Tomsk participated in their assignment.
In assigning the credit ratings, ACRA used only information, the quality and reliability of which were, in ACRA’s opinion, appropriate and sufficient to apply the methodologies.
ACRA provided no additional services to Tomsk during the year preceding the rating action.
No conflicts of interest were discovered in the course of credit rating assignment.
