The credit rating of Moscow (hereinafter, the City) is based on the City’s minimal debt load, high reserve of liquidity, and the highest possible budget and economic profile assessments.
The population of Moscow accounts for approximately 9% of the country’s population. Moscow ranks first in Russia in terms of total gross regional product (GRP). Its high level of economic development is supported by its status as the political, financial, industrial, scientific, and cultural center of the country. Moscow is a donor to the federal budget.
KEY ASSESSMENT FACTORS
The City has the highest possible economic profile assessment. The highest possible primary assessment of the City’s economic profile is based on two factors: the ratio of the City’s per capita GRP to the national average GRP and the ratio of average wage to subsistence minimum.
Unemployment in the City is consistently low. It was 0.8% in 2025 according to the ILO’s methodology, while the average for Russia was 2.2%. The unemployment rate averaged1 for 2022–2025 amounted to 1.2%. Diversification of tax revenues by industry is high, in 2025, the maximum share in the total volume of tax revenues received by the city budget came from financial and insurance activities (19.3%). A significant share of revenues also comes from trade (wholesale and retail and repair of vehicles, 16.8%).
Low unemployment and diversification of the tax base justify the City’s maximum final economic profile score. The City is characterized by a high level of social and infrastructure development.
1 Hereinafter, averages are calculated according to the Methodology for Assigning Credit Ratings to Regions and Municipal Entities under the National Scale for the Russian Federation.
Minimal debt load. The City’s debt to current income ratio and debt to GRP ratio are consistently minimal. Borrowings planned for 2025 do not influence the debt load assessment. In 2025, the size of debt increased by 24%; according to the current version of the budget law, in 2026 the City will continue to increase its debt, however, borrowings planned for 2026 do not influence the debt load assessment.
As of January 1, 2026, the City’s debt included budget loans (61%) due in 2026–2040 and bonds (39%) due in 2026–2028. According to the budget law, in 2026 the City plans to obtain budget loans and place bonds.
As of the start of the year, the City had to repay 8% of its public debt and then 5% in 2027. The peak in repayments is scheduled for 2028 (when the City will have to repay 38% of its current liabilities), but given the low debt load and significant size of balances in the budget’s accounts, this repayment will not create refinancing risks. Interest expenditures are insignificant.
The qualitative assessment of the debt load is determined by the Agency at the highest level. This is due to the long weighted average debt repayment period (exceeding four years), the City’s balanced debt policy, which is based on the use of long-term debt instruments diversified by type, and the City’s positive credit history. There were no overdue accounts payable as of January 1, 2025 and January 1, 2026. Moscow’s state-owned companies, which potentially could require support from the City’s budget, are engaged in socially significant areas and contribute to the development of urban infrastructure. Moscow’s expenditures that are related to carrying out obligations as part of PPP projects and concession agreements, are not critical for the City’s budget.
High operational efficiency of the budget. The current account balance to current revenues ratio in 2022–2026 indicates that the City has enough internal revenues to completely finance its current expenditures. The size of the current account balance and accumulated liquidity will allow Moscow to finance the entire planned volume of capital expenditures. The budget’s need to use additional funds is offset by the City’s low debt load.
The share of tax and non-tax revenues in total revenues (excluding subventions) is close to 100% annually. Capital expenditures have exceeded 30% of total expenditures since 2021 (excluding subventions), and, according to the City’s projections, this indicator will remain at approximately the same level this year.
The qualitative assessment of the City’s capital expenditures is determined as the highest. Capital expenditures are financed almost entirely using internal revenues. Moscow’s engineering, transportation, and social infrastructure is comparatively well-developed compared to other regions of Russia and the Central Federal District. Modified free cash flow is often negative, but its absolute value is small compared to the City’s budget.
In 2025, the expenditure and revenues of the budget grew, while the deficit was largely financed using accumulated liquidity.
According to the current version of the budget law, the deficit in 2026 is expected to be higher than it was last year. At the same time, it is planned to attract borrowed funds to finance the deficit, which will allow budget liquidity to be maintained at a high level.
The qualitative assessment of the budget profile is determined as the highest. There are no cases of violation of budget law, and the volume of lost tax revenues due to the use of tax incentives is insignificant for the budget. The City adheres to conservative planning of budget indicators, and the actual deficit is often somewhat lower than the target, which is frequently associated with the volatility of corporate income tax proceeds.
High reserve of budget liquidity. A significant amount of funds in the City’s budget accounts (including deposits) provides a substantial reserve of liquidity. As of January 1, 2026, the volume of funds in accounts, including funds placed in deposits, exceeded public debt as of the aforementioned date by several times. Income from placing temporarily free funds in bank deposits on an annual basis exceeds interest on debt servicing.
The qualitative assessment of budget liquidity corresponds to the highest level. Moscow has considerable experience in offering bonds in the debt market; account balances on average exceeded the budget’s average monthly expenditures by more than two times over the past 12 months. According to the City, as of January 1, 2026 payables had declined compared to the same date the year before. The City does not use loans from the Federal Treasury Department to finance cash gaps and does not obtain credit lines to cover budget deficits, as this is unnecessary. There are no debt refinancing risks.
KEY ASSUMPTIONS
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Maintaining high budget liquidity;
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Maintaining the high operational efficiency of the budget.
POTENTIAL OUTLOOK OR RATING CHANGE FACTORS
The Stable outlook assumes that the rating will highly likely stay unchanged within the 12 to 18-month horizon.
A negative rating action may be prompted by:
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Significant decline in the operational balance and substantial increase in debt load;
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Substantial changes in inter-budget relations in Russia.
rating components
Standalone creditworthiness assessment (SCA): аaa.
ISSUE RATINGS
Moscow Government Bond (ISIN RU000A1033Z8), maturity date: May 18, 2028, issue volume: RUB 70 bln — AAA(RU).
Rationale. In the Agency’s opinion, the bond issue of Moscow represents a senior unsecured debt instrument, the credit rating of which is equal to the credit rating of Moscow. As per ACRA’s methodology, the simplified approach was applied to determine the credit rating, according to which the level of recovery for the issue corresponds to category II, and therefore the credit rating of the issue is the same as the credit rating of the city — AAA(RU).
REGULATORY DISCLOSURE
The credit ratings have been assigned to Moscow and the bond issue of Moscow based on the following methodologies: the Methodology for Assigning Credit Ratings to Regions and Municipal Entities under the National Scale for the Russian Federation to calculate the SCA and determine the credit rating and the credit rating outlook of the Moscow under the national scale for the Russian Federation, Methodology for Assigning Credit Ratings to Financial Instruments under the National Scale for the Russian Federation to determine the credit rating of the bond issue under the national scale for the Russian Federation, and the Key Concepts Used by the Analytical Credit Rating Agency within the Scope of Its Rating Activities to ensure consistent and uniform application of ACRA’s methodologies, rating scales, models, and key rating assumptions.
The credit rating of Moscow assigned under the national scale for the Russian Federation was published by ACRA for the first time on August 30, 2017. The credit rating of the bond issue of Moscow (ISIN RU000A1033Z8) assigned under the national scale for the Russian Federation was published by ACRA for the first time on May 21, 2021.
The credit rating of Moscow was last published on October 28, 2025. The credit rating of the bond issue of Moscow (ISIN RU000A1033Z8) was last published on October 28, 2025.
The credit rating of Moscow and its outlook, as well as the credit rating of the bond issue of Moscow, are expected to be revised within 182 days as per the Calendar of sovereign credit rating revisions and publications.
The credit ratings were assigned based on data provided by Moscow, information from publicly available sources (the Ministry of Finance, the Federal State Statistics Service, and the Federal Tax Service), and ACRA’s own databases. The rating analysis was performed using the RAS accounting (financial) statements of Moscow as of January 1, 2026.
The credit ratings are solicited and Moscow participated in their assignment.
In assigning the credit ratings, ACRA used only information, the quality and reliability of which were, in ACRA’s opinion, appropriate and sufficient to apply the methodologies.
ACRA provided no additional services to Moscow during the year preceding the rating action.
No conflicts of interest were discovered in the course of credit rating assignment.
