The credit rating of the Sverdlovsk Region (hereinafter, the Region) is based on the Region’s low debt load coupled with low refinancing risks and a balanced debt repayment schedule, balanced budget profile indicators, and moderate socioeconomic development indicators that are partially dependent on the local metals industry.
The Sverdlovsk Region is part of the Ural Federal District and borders seven other regions of the Russian Federation. The Region is home to about 3% of Russia’s population. According to the Region’s estimates, its gross regional product (GRP) amounted to RUB 5.1 tln in 2025 (the Region’s GRP is consistently around 3% of the total GRP generated by Russia’s regions).
KEY ASSESSMENT FACTORS
High budget self-sufficiency and flexibility of budget expenditures. The Region’s ratio of tax and non-tax revenues (TNTR) to total revenues (excluding subventions) is high: its averaged1 value for 2022–2026 is projected to exceed 90%. The ratio of the current account to current revenues for the same period may amount to around 13%.
The averaged share of capital expenditures in the Region’s total expenditures for 2022–2026 is very high at about 20%. However, the metric is declining somewhat from year to year. The qualitative assessment of budget expenditure flexibility corresponds to the third category: capital expenditures are financed primarily from the regional budget, however, taking into account their dynamics in periods of low TNTR, the possibility of their significant reduction is not obvious. The need to increase the volume of capital expenditures corresponds to the capabilities of the regional budget. The current account balance after interest income and expenditures is regularly positive.
In the Agency’s opinion, the ratio of the modified budget deficit to current revenues averaged over the abovementioned period will be negative. The indicator has been adjusted by one notch (from three to two) due to the low debt. Last year’s budget deficit was financed using funds in accounts. This year it is expected that the planned deficit will be financed mainly using borrowings.
The qualitative assessment of the Region’s budget profile is at the maximum level. There is no information about any breaches of legislation that could affect the budget profile. The Region transfers extra tax revenues to the lower level; tax benefits cause no significant impact on the budget (7% and 6% of TNTR in 2024 and 2025, respectively). Budget planning is conservative and is hampered by partial dependence on the demand and prices for the main goods manufactured by regional enterprises.
1 Hereinafter, averages are calculated according to the Methodology for Assigning Credit Ratings to Regions and Municipal Entities under the National Scale for the Russian Federation.
Low debt load and low debt refinancing risks. As of January 1, 2026, the Region’s debt load amounted to 17% of its current revenues. In 2025, debt declined by 17%, mainly due to the repayment of bonds and to a certain extent due to the write-off of budget loans. ACRA expects this indicator to grow to 20% by the end of 2026 due to the issuance of bonds to finance the deficit, which will continue to correspond to a low debt load.
As of the start of this year, the Region’s debt was 85% made up of budget loans, while bonds accounted for the rest. The Region had to repay no more than 14% of its total debt annually (as of the start of 2026).
Interest expenditures are not burdensome for the Region since interest expenditures averaged for 2022–2026 will amount to less than 1% of total budget expenditures (excluding subventions). The ratio of debt to GRP annually does not exceed 4%, which corresponds to a low total debt load as per ACRA’s methodology.
The qualitative assessment of the debt profile corresponds to the maximum level. The weighted average debt maturity has grown considerably since debt was restructured, the debt structure is diversified; there are no overdue accounts payable, and the current account balance is regularly substantially positive. The debt of public sector companies is not significant for the regional budget, and the need to support them cannot have a serious impact on it. Total expenditures under commitments to public-private partnerships and concessions will not exceed RUB 1.1 bln annually in 2026. The debt of lower-level budgets is sustainably low. The Region’s debt policy is based on long-term borrowings.
High volume of available liquidity. The liquidity ratio amounted to 147% in 2025, and is expected to fall to 80% by the end of this year, which corresponds to level three. The score has been adjusted to two due to the Region placing a significant volume of deposits.
The qualitative assessment of the liquidity profile corresponds to level two. The Region is an active borrower in the debt market; there is a need to attract additional financing. No tenders for credit lines have been held over the past 24 months, as they are unnecessary. The Region entered into a loan agreement with the Federal Treasury Department in 2026. Refinancing risks are minimal, no increase in accounts payable of the regional budget is observed.
Diversified economy with moderate concentration on the metals industry. The Region’s GRP per capita averaged for 2021–2024 amounted to 88% of the national average. The ratio of wage to regional subsistence minimum averaged for 2022–2025 was 4.6. The unemployment rate averaged over the last four years calculated according to the ILO’s methodology amounted to 1.4%.
ACRA notes the moderate concentration of the economy on the metals industry which produces about a tenth of Russia’s steel and finished rolled products, up to a quarter of steel pipes, a fifth of iron ore, and a third of copper cathode. About a quarter of the world’s titanium is produced in the Region. According to ACRA’s estimates, the contribution of the metal production industry to the Region’s tax revenues averaged for 2022–2025 amounted to 11% (in 2024, six of the 10 largest organizations in the Region in terms of revenues were related to the metals industry).
KEY ASSUMPTIONS
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Maintaining a high share of TNTR in the budget’s revenue structure;
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Maintaining a low debt load.
POTENTIAL OUTLOOK OR RATING CHANGE FACTORS
The Stable outlook assumes that the rating will highly likely stay unchanged within the 12 to 18-month horizon.
A positive rating action may be prompted by:
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Accelerated growth of the Region’s economic development indicators, including a long period of GRP growth at rates above the Russian averages;
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Lower need for additional financing and improvement of budget liquidity metrics.
A negative rating action may be prompted by:
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Economic development indicators continuing to lag behand the national average trends;
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Averaged share of capital expenditures falling below 18% of expenditures;
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Averaged share of TNTR falling below 86% of revenues;
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The Region’s leverage growing amid higher refinancing risks.
RATING COMPONENTS
Standalone creditworthiness assessment (SCA): aa+.
ISSUE RATINGS
Sverdlovsk Region, 35005 (ISIN RU000A0ZZQH9), maturity date: October 23, 2026, issue volume: RUB 5 bln — АA+(RU).
Sverdlovsk Region, 35006 (ISIN RU000A1016N9), maturity date: December 15, 2026, issue volume: RUB 5 bln — АA+(RU).
Sverdlovsk Region, 35008 (ISIN RU000A101Z17), maturity date: July 29, 2027, issue volume: RUB 12 bln — АA+(RU).
Sverdlovsk Region, 35009 (ISIN RU000A102CT6), maturity date: November 17, 2027, volume: RUB 8 bln — АA+(RU).
Rationale. In ACRA’s opinion, the bonds of the Sverdlovsk Region are senior unsecured debt instruments, the credit ratings of which correspond to the credit rating of the Sverdlovsk Region. As per ACRA’s methodology, the simplified approach was used to determine the credit rating, according to which the level of recovery for issues corresponds to category II, and therefore the credit rating of the issues is equal to the credit rating of the Region — AA+(RU).
REGULATORY DISCLOSURE
The credit rating has been assigned to the Sverdlovsk Region and the issues of the Sverdlovsk Region based on the following methodologies: the Methodology for Assigning Credit Ratings to Regions and Municipal Entities of the Russian Federation to calculate the SCA and determine the credit rating and the credit rating outlook of the Sverdlovsk Region under the national scale for the Russian Federation, Methodology for Assigning Credit Ratings to Financial Instruments under the National Scale for the Russian Federation to determine the credit rating of the bond issues under the national scale for the Russian Federation, and the Key Concepts Used by the Analytical Credit Rating Agency within the Scope of Its Rating Activities to ensure consistent and uniform application of ACRA’s methodologies, rating scales, models, and key rating assumptions.
The credit rating of the Sverdlovsk Region assigned under the national scale for the Russian Federation was published by ACRA for the first time on September 8, 2017. The credit ratings of the bond issues assigned under the national scale for the Russian Federation were published for the first time on: (ISIN RU000A0ZZQH9) — October 18, 2018, (ISIN RU000A1016N9) — December 11, 2019, (ISIN RU000A101Z17) — July 24, 2020, (ISIN RU000A102CT6) — November 18, 2020.
The credit ratings of the Sverdlovsk Region and its bond issues (ISIN RU000A0ZZQH9; RU000A1016N9; RU000A101Z17; RU000A102CT6) were last published on November 5, 2025.
The credit rating of the Sverdlovsk Region and its outlook, as well as the credit ratings of the bond issues of the Sverdlovsk Region, are expected to be revised within 182 days as per the Calendar of sovereign credit rating revisions and publications.
The credit ratings were assigned based on data provided by the Sverdlovsk Region, information from publicly available sources (the Ministry of Finance, the Federal State Statistics Service, and the Federal Tax Service), and ACRA’s own databases. The rating analysis was performed using the RAS accounting (financial) statements of the Sverdlovsk Region as of March 1, 2026.
The credit rating is solicited and the Sverdlovsk Region participated in its assignment.
In assigning the credit rating, ACRA used only information, the quality and reliability of which were, in ACRA’s opinion, appropriate and sufficient to apply the methodologies.
ACRA provided no additional services to the Sverdlovsk Region during the year preceding the rating action.
No conflicts of interest were discovered in the course of credit rating assignment.
