The credit rating of PJSC “Aeroflot” (hereinafter, Aeroflot, Aeroflot Group, or the Company) is based on the very high assessment of the degree of support from the state and the medium assessment of dependence on homogeneous risk factors. The operational profile assessment is determined by the very strong market position and strong corporate governance, very high average aircraft utilization ratio, relatively young aircraft fleet, and good geographic diversification. The financial profile assessment includes the high score for the Company’s size, medium score for leverage, medium coverage of interest expense, medium score for cash flow, and high liquidity metrics.
Aeroflot Group is Russia’s largest aviation group and one of the oldest in the world. The Company’s hub is Sheremetyevo International Airport. Aeroflot Group includes three airlines that operate under the brands Aeroflot, Pobeda and Rossiya, as well as a number of other companies engaged in ground maintenance of the air fleet, flight crew training, software development, etc. The Russian Federation is the main shareholder of Aeroflot with a share of 73.77%. Around 25% of the Company’s ordinary shares are in free float.
key assessment factors
The very high assessment of state support is determined by the high assessments of the sub-factors Propensity to Provide Support, Exclusivity of Functions, Role in the Economy and Reputational Risks, Ownership, Control and Regulation, Guarantees or Other Channels of Support, as well as the very high score for the sub-factor Barriers and Restrictions. Aeroflot is the largest air carrier in Russia and plays a significant role in ensuring transport accessibility and connectivity of the country’s regions. In addition, Aeroflot is a key buyer of Russian-made civil aircraft, which, given the accelerated development of the Russian civil aviation manufacturing industry, increases its exceptional economic importance. The Company is the subject of various industry-wide government support measures. Anti-crisis measures (against the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic and after the introduction of sanctions in 2022) have included one-time subsidies to support operations and the allocation of additional financing for insurance settlements for aircraft leased from foreign lessors. As part of current industry support measures, there are subsidies and preferential VAT rates for some air travel destinations, as well as a damping mechanism that allows part of the costs of jet fuel to be offset (which is especially important amid currently volatile fuel prices). Besides this, Aeroflot is the only Russian airline that receives income from non-stop flights of foreign airlines over Siberia, however, since 2020 this income has declined significantly. There are no legal, economic or other barriers to providing government support. The state, as the key shareholder, has a considerable influence over strategic decisions at the Company.
Strong operational profile. Aeroflot Group includes three airlines that operate in different market segments (traditional network carrier, low-cost airline, regional carrier), which increases the Company’s competitiveness and responsiveness to market changes. The total share of Aeroflot Group in the Russian air transportation market in terms of passenger traffic was 41.7% in 2025, which indicates the very strong market position. Aeroflot also benefits from its well-developed net of flight routes covering all the key destinations in Russia and 19 other countries. The main business line of the Company is domestic air transportation whose share in the consolidated revenue amounted to 55% in 2025. The operational profile assessment also reflects the very high occupancy of passenger seats, which amounted to 90.2% by the end of 2025 (vs. 89.6% in 2024), and a relatively young aircraft fleet (the average age of the fleet is 11 years), which is of particular importance in view of restricted deliveries of new foreign aircraft and spare parts. As of December 31, 2025, the Company’s fleet consisted of 352 aircraft; about 82% of the fleet are narrow-body (regional and medium-haul) aircraft. Since the beginning of 2026, the aircraft fleet was replenished with one aircraft, which was received on the terms of wet lease (also known as ACMI lease).
The high corporate governance assessment reflects the presence of a regulated and effective risk management system, a long-term development strategy, an effective management structure, and a very high level of financial transparency in Aeroflot Group. The Company discloses its quarterly IFRS financial statements, as well as non-financial reporting.
High profitability and the very large size of the Company. The total passenger turnover of Aeroflot Group grew to 154 bln passenger kilometers (PKM) in 2025 vs. 149 bln PKM a year earlier, while the total number of passengers was 55.3 mln. The increase in passenger turnover was driven by an increase in international passenger traffic and the average occupancy rate from 89.6% in 2024 to 90.2% in 2025. Due to the increased passenger turnover, Aeroflot Group’s revenue increased by 5% last year to RUB 902 bln, and the passenger revenue per available seat-kilometer (RASK) grew by 2.5% due to a moderate increase in revenue rates for transportation. Despite the positive revenue dynamics, the FFO before fixed charges and taxes for 2025 decreased by 23% to RUB 185 bln, due to an outstripping increase in operating expenses (excluding the positive result from the insurance settlement for aircraft of foreign lessors). Labor costs showed the largest growth within operating expenses (+31% compared to 2024) due to an increase in employee salaries and filling vacancies. Against the background of increased operating expenses, the FFO before fixed charges and taxes margin decreased to 20% in 2025 compared to 28% a year earlier. ACRA expects that in 2026–2028, the weighted average FFO before fixed charges and taxes margin will remain high (more than 15%).
Given that the Company’s ability to expand and upgrade its aircraft fleet is limited due to sanctions, ACRA forecasts a temporary decrease in passenger turnover after 2026. As new Russian-made aircraft arrive, this indicator is expected to resume growing. The Agency also assumes the revenue growth to RUB 1 tln by 2027, subject to further growth in the share of international air transportation, a weakening of the Russian ruble, and the continued positive dynamics of RASK.
Medium assessment of leverage and medium interest payment coverage. The total debt of Aeroflot Group was RUB 609 bln as of December 31, 2025 and mostly included bank loans (RUB 67 bln), bonds (RUB 100 bln) and lease obligations (RUB 442 bln). A significant share of lease obligations (around 50%) are denominated in US dollars, which has a negative impact on the quality assessment of leverage. Moreover, in its quality assessment of the leverage, the Agency took into account the fact that lease obligations include obligations under lease agreements for aircraft and aircraft engines, for which notices of early termination were received from lessors in pursuance of sanctions. The Company continues to take into account all obligations under these lease agreements in full, and is guided by Russian legislation that prohibits the export of aircraft outside the Russian Federation for the purpose of returning them to lessors from a number of countries. The ratio of total debt adjusted for operating leases to FFO before fixed payments was 3.9x at the end of 2025. ACRA expects this indicator to remain within 3–4x until 2028, taking into account the current debt repayment schedule and the Company’s current plans for capital expenses. The weighted ratio of FFO before fixed changes to fixed changes (including operating lease expenses and interest payments) for 2023–2028 is 3.2x, which indicates the medium score for coverage.
Medium cash flow assessment and strong liquidity metrics. On the back of declining FFO and growing capex and dividend payments, the Company’s (FCF) turned negative in 2025 and amounted to –RUB 87 bln vs. RUB 92 bln a year earlier. The capex-to-revenue ratio increased to 23% (vs. 11% in 2024), however ACRA expects this figure to be somewhat lower — around 15%, taking into account the Company’s investment plans that are primarily aimed at maintaining the airworthiness of aircraft fleet in the current conditions. Against the background of increased capex and significant dividend payments (projected at RUB 21 bln in 2026), the Company’s FCF will remain negative, while the weighted average FCF margin for 2023–2028 is -2%, which corresponds to the medium score for cash flow per ACRA’s methodology. Strong liquidity metrics are based on significant cash balances in the Company’s accounts, which as of December 31, 2025 amounted to RUB 74 bln (including bank deposits), as well as the availability of undrawn credit lines for RUB 437 bln.
key assumptions
-
Maintaining stable state support at a very high level;
-
Implementing the capital investment program as per the Company’s plans, coupled with substantial state support for the Russian civil aircraft manufacturing industry;
-
The Company maintaining its share in the Russian air passenger transportation market at close to the current level;
-
The FFO before fixed payments and taxes margin at above 15% in 2026–2028;
-
The seat occupancy rate at above 85%;
-
Continued access to external sources of liquidity.
POTENTIAL OUTLOOK OR RATING CHANGE FACTORS
The Stable outlook assumes that the rating will highly likely stay unchanged within the 12 to 18-month horizon.
A positive rating action may be prompted by:
- Higher systemic importance of the Company to the state and a significant expansion of its functions.
A negative rating action may be prompted by:
-
The state losing control or a significant decline in support;
-
Lower systemic importance of Aeroflot to the Russian economy due to a substantial decline of its share in the Russian air passenger transportation market.
rating components
Standalone creditworthiness assessment (SCA): aa-.
Support: state — on par with the Russian Federation minus two notches.
issue ratings
Bond of PJSC “Aeroflot” (ISIN RU000A103943), maturity date: June 11, 2026, issue volume: RUB 24.7 bln — AA(RU).
Credit rating rationale. The issue represents senior unsecured debt of Aeroflot. Due to the absence of either structural or contractual subordination of the issue, ACRA ranks it equal to other existing and future unsecured and unsubordinated debt obligations of the Company in terms of priority. In accordance with ACRA’s methodology, the simplified rating approach was applied, according to which the recovery rate of the issue belongs to category II, and therefore the credit rating of the issue is on par with the credit rating assigned to the Company — AA(RU).
REGULATORY DISCLOSURE
The credit ratings have been assigned to PJSC “Aeroflot” and the bond issue of PJSC “Aeroflot” based on the following methodologies: the Methodology for Assigning Credit Ratings to Non-Financial Corporations under the National Scale for the Russian Federation to calculate the SCA and determine the credit rating and the credit rating outlook of PJSC “Aeroflot” under the national scale for the Russian Federation; the Methodology for Assigning Credit Ratings to Financial Instruments on the National Scale for the Russian Federation to determine the credit rating of the bond issue under the national scale for the Russian Federation; the Methodology for Assigning Credit Ratings with External Support to assess factors of external influence; and the Key Concepts Used by the Analytical Credit Rating Agency within the Scope of Its Rating Activities to ensure consistent and uniform application of ACRA’s methodologies, rating scales, models, and key rating assumptions.
The credit ratings of PJSC “Aeroflot” and the bond issue of PJSC “Aeroflot” (ISIN RU000A103943) assigned under the national scale for the Russian Federation were published by ACRA for the first time on July 1, 2024 and July 23, 2024, respectively.
The most recent publication date of the credit ratings of PJSC “Aeroflot” and the bond issue (ISIN RU000A103943) is June 23, 2025.
The credit rating of PJSC “Aeroflot” and its outlook, and the credit rating of the bond issue of PJSC “Aeroflot” are expected to be revised within one year.
The credit ratings were assigned based on data provided by PJSC “Aeroflot”, information from publicly available sources, and ACRA’s own databases. The rating analysis was performed using the IFRS financial statements of PJSC “Aeroflot” as of December 31, 2025.
The credit ratings are solicited and PJSC “Aeroflot” participated in the rating process.
In assigning the credit ratings, ACRA used only information, the quality and reliability of which were, in ACRA’s opinion, appropriate and sufficient to apply the methodologies.
ACRA provided no additional services to PJSC “Aeroflot” during the year preceding the rating action.
No conflicts of interest were discovered in the course of the rating process.
