ACRA has affirmed the long-term foreign currency credit rating of the Kyrgyz Republic (hereinafter, Kyrgyzstan, or the country) at BB- and its long-term local currency credit rating at BB- under the international scale.
The outlook on the long-term foreign currency credit rating is Stable and local currency credit rating is Stable. The Stable outlook assumes that the rating will highly likely stay unchanged within the 12 to 18-month horizon.
Positive rating assessment factors
-
Moderate and declining public debt and low interest expenses for servicing it, which were achieved due to a high share of debt with concessional terms.
-
High economic growth that has resulted in both improvement of the revenue side of the budget and a general strengthening of fiscal discipline.
-
Stable support from international development institutions and implementation of major investment projects aimed at structural transformation in the economy.
-
Relatively low shares of the public and quasi-public sectors in the economy.
Negative rating assessment factors
-
Relatively low level of economic wealth of the population.
-
Strong dependence of the economy on factors related to the external sector, in particular, increased imports and overseas remittances.
-
Low coverage of external debt by reserves, foreign currency debt, and imports.
-
Comparatively low assessments of institutional quality and human capital factors, implementation of risks of a restrictive nature in relation to certain banks and financial platforms.
credit rating rationalE
The credit rating is based on the medium assessment of the factors Public Finance, Macroeconomics and External Position, the comparatively low assessment of the institutional factor, in particular, the comparatively low economic wealth of the population (although it has grown over the past four years), high dependence on the economies of the country’s main trade partners, relatively low indicators of institutional quality, moderate public debt, as well as comparatively favorable conditions for external borrowing and development of foreign trade. ACRA notes Kyrgyzstan’s focus on reforming economic policy and actively attracting investments to major infrastructure projects, which has partially already become a driver of accelerated growth of the country’s economy.
Macroeconomics
Kyrgyzstan’s economy is characterized by the relatively low economic welfare of its population — average per capita GDP in current prices is just over USD 3,000, although this indicator has doubled over the past four years.
The country’s economy is also characterized by high external dependence on trade channels, especially imports (the shares of China and Russia were around 47% and 20% in 2025, respectively), as well as a significant outflow of labor resources from the labor market abroad. The latter forms an imbalance in the labor market and in the long term may put pressure on the budget sector through pension insurance. The outflow of workers and volatility of remittances from the country’s citizens are also sources of risks for the country’s balance of payments. Remittances from abroad amounted to a quarter of GDP on average from 2019 to 2023, while in 2025 this indicator declined to 15% of GDP, which weakened one of the key sources of support from the external sector of the economy.
In 2022–2025, the Kyrgyz economy recorded significant growth in real terms: cumulative growth was 44% compared to 2021. Consumer inflation fell to single-digit rates in 2024 and 2025, but is now experiencing a new short-term surge in growth.
ACRA expects the Kyrgyz economy to grow by approximately 5–6% annually in 2026–2028, amid average consumer price inflation of 6% and in the event of no new serious external economic shocks.
Public finances
The Agency notes the overall stabilization of the country’s budget amid steady growth of revenues relative to expenditures. The share of current expenditures, however, remains heightened, and dependence of domestic investments and capital items on external support programs remains high, which leads to some volatility in budget formation.
Kyrgyzstan has managed to maintain room to maneuver in terms of the budget process. Public debt that grew to 68% of GDP in 2020 and stabilized in 2021–2024 amounted to 39% at the start of 2026.
In 2025, the budget was executed with a surplus of 2.5% of GDP. From 2023 to 2025, the surplus on average amounted to 2% of GDP, which has a positive impact on the assessment of Kyrgyzstan’s public finance sector.
According to ACRA’s expectations, in the medium term and long term, the country will be able to maintain its public debt at a moderate level. This will be facilitated by growing but still relatively low interest payments and a noticeable increase in budget revenues due to better administration of taxation. In recent years, tax revenues have been significantly supported by rising tariff revenues driven by increased imports. The Agency assesses Kyrgyzstan’s contingent liabilities as insignificant, despite their exposure to external pressure on a number of the country’s financial institutions.
External position
ACRA considers the consistently negative high current account balance (although it tended to decline in 2025), the predominance of direct investment within the financial sector, and negative net exports to be some of the main characteristics of Kyrgyzstan’s external position. At the same time, the country possesses significant transit potential to strengthen its position in exporting services, which may be realized as the North–South and China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan transport corridors are created.
As of January 1, 2026, the country’s external public debt, unlike its internal public debt, was at a rather high level and accounted for 24% of the GDP projected by ACRA for 2026. However, a substantial share of this debt is made up of concessional borrowings received under favorable repayment parameters. At the same time, Kyrgyzstan has begun carrying out plans to raise several tranches of external market funding in order to finance major energy projects, which to some extent will increase the debt positon in foreign currency and complicate servicing of external debt.
Internal public debt is significantly smaller than external debt (15.8% of last year’s GDP as of the start of 2026) and practically entirely long-term.
The Agency notes that at the end of 2023 and in 2024, there was a slight recovery of the gross reserves of the National Bank of Kyrgyzstan, while in 2025 the indicator surged to USD 8.6 bln as of the end of the year.
Nonetheless, ACRA notes a medium level of coverage by monetary reserves, both with regard to Kyrgyzstan’s debt and imports. As of the end of 2025, reserve coverage of gross external debt excluding intercorporate debt amounted to 67%, while reserve coverage of the country’s annual imports of goods and services projected for 2026 is seven months.
Institutions
Kyrgyzstan has medium scores for World Governance Indicators and a consistently low level of human capital. These indicators are tending to normalize. ACRA also notes the country’s focus on reforming a number of spheres of economic and social life (creating specialized sector funds for economic development, strengthening the role of automation in fiscal practice, improving the statistical coverage of public finances), which considerably support the long-term economic growth.
The risk of foreign economic pressure with regard to Kyrgyzstan’s foreign trade flows is still relevant. This may serve as a negative factor in stability of the national currency and have a constraining impact on the project activities of international development institutions in the country and the debt burden of borrowers in public and private sectors.
SOVEREIGN MODEL APPLICATION RESULTS
Kyrgyzstan has been assigned a BBB- Indicative Credit Rating in accordance with the core part of ACRA’s sovereign model. A number of modifiers in the modifiers part of the model downgrade Kyrgyzstan’s Indicative credit rating. These include the following, which are determined by the Methodology for Assigning Credit Ratings to Sovereign Entities under the International Scale:
-
Quality and sustainability of economic growth;
-
Potential economic growth;
-
Fiscal policy and budget flexibility;
-
Vulnerability of the balance of payments;
-
Sustainability of foreign debt;
-
Political instability and recent political decisions;
-
Exposure to geopolitical risks.
In view of the abovementioned modifiers, a Final Credit Rating of BB- has been assigned. There are no analytical adjustments and limitations that could result in an adjustment of the Final Rating. In connection with this, the long-term foreign currency credit rating is BB-.
POTENTIAL OUTLOOK OR RATING CHANGE FACTORS
A positive rating action may be prompted by:
-
Growth of trade diversification, strengthening of investment inflows, and development of the economy’s financial infrastructure;
-
Significant increase of the level of the welfare of Kyrgyzstan’s population, which stimulates higher domestic demand and economic growth restructuring;
-
Stable increase in domestic lending on exclusively market-based principles;
-
Further institutional transformations that increase the quality of human capital.
A negative rating action may be prompted by:
-
Weakening of the national currency and depletion of the country’s international reserves while maintaining a significant trade deficit and a negative current account balance;
-
Transfer of risks from its major trading partners (China and Russia) due to a slowdown of their economic activity;
-
Lower investments in the event of reduced lending by international financial organizations, stronger concentration of public debt repayments;
-
Noticeable deterioration of budget parameters and quasi-public sector finances;
-
Materialization of direct and indirect sanctions risks.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURE
The credit ratings have been assigned to the Kyrgyz Republic based on the following methodologies: the Methodology for Assigning Credit Ratings to Sovereign Entities under the International Scale to calculate the SCA and determine the credit rating and the credit rating outlook of the Kyrgyz Republic under the international scale and the Key Concepts Used by the Analytical Credit Rating Agency within the Scope of Its Rating Activities to ensure consistent and uniform application of ACRA’s methodologies, rating scales, models, and key rating assumptions.
The credit ratings of the Kyrgyz Republic assigned under the international scale were published by ACRA for the first time on September 7, 2022.
The credit ratings were last published on December 26, 2025.
The credit ratings and their outlooks are expected to be revised within 182 days as per the Calendar of sovereign credit rating revisions and publications.
The credit ratings were assigned based on information from publicly available sources and ACRA’s own databases.
The credit ratings are unsolicited and the Kyrgyz Republic participated in their assignment.
In assigning the credit ratings, ACRA used only information, the quality and reliability of which were, in ACRA’s opinion, appropriate and sufficient to apply the methodologies.
ACRA provided no additional services to the Kyrgyz Republic during the year preceding the rating action.
No conflicts of interest were discovered in the course of the credit rating assignment.
The standalone creditworthiness assessment is equal to the credit ratings and corresponds to bb-.
