MAIN CONCLUSIONS
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As of the start of July 2025, ACRA’s Kazakhstan Financial Stress Index (ACRA SFSI KZ) had stabilized and was at a moderate level. At the same time, estimates of the probability of trigger events and imbalances remain moderate, while the dynamics in individual sectors are very weak
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The key imbalance as of the end of the first half of this year was the liquidity imbalance in the financial intuitions sector, excluding the primary imbalance in the corporate sector in foreign currency. These imbalances can be assessed as acceptable compared to the historical sample. At the same time, a scenario under which growing external economic uncertainty could strengthen imbalances and increase the possibility of trigger events is becoming more likely at the end of this year.
FINANCIAL STRESS INDEX PERFORMANCE
Main manifestations of financial stress
After growing at the start of 2025, the ACRA SFSI KZ again stabilized at a moderate level. The main factors contributing to this were the balance of urgency between liabilities and assets of the financial sector, as well as the potential for trigger values in terms of currency risk.
The currency risk trigger reached the level of the end of 2022/beginning of 2023. The refinancing risk trigger returned to a level close to the minimum, which in general significantly weakened the probability of stress.
Currently, the continuance of a tight monetary policy coupled with restrained volatility of the tenge exchange rate compared to previous periods, are keeping trigger events at low levels. If we consider the potential of trigger events in the long term, then the current entirely acceptable volatility of the tenge exchange rate may increase slightly in the event of deterioration of the current account indicators of the balance of payments during the planned consolidation of the budget policy beginning in 2025. Uncertainty in the global economy and pressure on Kazakhstan’s national currency at the end of 2025 may strengthen the role of triggers and impact both the currency imbalance (directly through currency shocks or as a refinancing imbalance with a time lag through the rise in the cost of liquidity in the national currency).
Figure 1. ACRA’s Kazakhstan Structural Financial Stress Index
Sources: Kazakh national agencies, ACRA
Figure 2. Structural financial stress index triggers
Sources: Kazakh national agencies, Kazakhstan Stock Exchange, ACRA
CURRENCY IMBALANCE
As of the start of July 2025, the total currency imbalance was absent because imbalances in certain sectors were positive, and ACRA does not view this as a source of stress.
According to the Agency’s estimates. As of the start of July, Kazakhstan’s financial sector did not experience any significant changes relative to the start of the year due to weak dynamics for both the sector’s assets and liabilities.
In the non-financial (corporate) sector, the positive imbalance slightly decreased against the background of relatively modest volumes of commodity exports in tenge in the first half of this year. Excluding export revenues in foreign currency, the imbalance in the non-financial sector is traditionally negative (an estimated indicator that is offset by revenues from the export of hydrocarbon raw materials). The observed indistinct dynamics are mainly associated with an increase in liquidity (the international investment position of the corporate sector in terms of cash currency and deposits has increased by 11% since the beginning of 2025), foreign exchange interest income (a noticeable increase to 2.3% in the interest rate on foreign exchange deposits with a maturity of one year for legal entities), and debt assets (in the form of debt instruments, equity instruments, deposits, etc.).
As for the public sector, mutually compensating trends can be identified — on the one hand, an increase in foreign exchange liquidity, on the other, an increase in short-term foreign exchange liabilities and interest expenditures.
The population is experiencing a decrease in both foreign exchange interest income and expenditures. Overall, the sector reflects general stability.
As a result, the foreign currency portion of the imbalances used in calculating the ACRA SFSI KZ is positive, and is therefore reset to zero, since the index records exclusively negative imbalances.
Figure 3. Currency imbalance by sector (positive values reflect a surplus of short-term liabilities over assets)1
Sources: Kazakh national agencies, ACRA
1 Balance is the difference between foreign currency debt and interest-bearing assets and liabilities; it is shown as a percentage relative to the calculated aggregate debt position of all the specified sectors, non-residents, and the country’s central bank.
LIQUIDITY IMBALANCE
At the beginning of the year, the liquidity imbalance increased by 0.9 pps, which was mainly due to the dynamics of liquidity in the financial sector, where liabilities grew, including short-term debt and interest expenditures, while assets showed mixed dynamics.
In the non-financial sector, the increase in operating profits (income of medium-sized and large enterprises from the sale of products and services) outstripped growth of liabilities.
In the public sector, there was a slight decrease in foreign exchange liquidity relative to last year’s level (in terms of cash and government deposits as part of the international investment position). Other components showed minimal change, and the overall balance remained with weakly positive values.
Figure 4. Liquidity imbalance by sector (positive values reflect a surplus of short-term liabilities over assets)2
2 Balance is the difference between short-term assets and liabilities; it is shown as a percentage relative to the calculated aggregate debt position of all the specified sectors, non-residents, and the country’s central bank.
POTENTIAL OF TRIGGER EVENTS
Key financial stress risks
As of mid-2025, the potential for trigger events of both types had decreased, according to ACRA’s estimates, but unlike the currency risk trigger that has shown a fall from a higher level at the beginning of the year, the liquidity trigger has reached a near-minimum level, since it was at acceptable levels for a year and a half already.
Last year marked the end of a long period of relative stability in the foreign exchange market: although the estimated volatility of the tenge exchange rate has decreased slightly since May this year, it is still at an elevated level relative to the minimums of mid-2024.
In the next year to year and a half, significant uncertainty will be observed in global trade, namely, trends in trade protectionism and the potential deterioration of the oil market3. The pressure on the tenge exchange rate associated with the development of these trends may significantly strengthen the role of triggers in 2025, which is especially important in relation to the trigger of currency risk.
3 A local minimum of Brent oil price at USD 60.23/bbl was observed on May 5, 2025, while the price reached USD 82.03/bbl at the beginning of the year.
Figure 5. Nominal KZT/USD exchange rate and its volatility
Sources: Kazakh national agencies, ACRA
Figure 6. Market spread between interest rates and the regulator’s base rate, %
Sources: Kazakh national agencies, ACRA
APPENDIX
WHAT DOES THE ACRA SFSI KZ SHOW AND WHAT ARE ITS COMPONENTS?
For more details, see the Structural Financial Stress Index (ACRA SFSI) Calculation Methodology.
The ACRA Financial Stress Index for Kazakhstan (ACRA SFSI KZ) assesses the proximity of the country’s financial system to a crisis. Linking different sectors of the economy, the financial system can contribute to the spread of defaults (regardless of the reasons) in some markets to other markets. Large-scale financial crises can lead to disruptions in the real sector of the economy (initially, due to local liquidity crises), which determines their importance.
The ACRA SFSI KZ is based on structural imbalances of the financial system. The Index aggregates information on the financial condition of economic agents and assesses their vulnerability to specific types of risk.
The financial condition of economic agents is studied on the basis of the maturity and currency structure of assets and liabilities at the sector level (financial companies, non-financial companies, the population, and the government). Imbalances in assets and liabilities by maturity and currency can cause a systemic risk when trigger events occur; in case of large imbalances, even weak triggers can result in a systemic crisis. On the contrary, powerful trigger events are not so significant when imbalances are small. The ACRA SFSI KZ includes trigger events such as manifestations of instability in the foreign exchange market and the interbank loan market. The first can impact expectations on the value of foreign exchange cash flows, the second — on the availability of short-term funding.
The Index analyzes two types of imbalances: liquidity imbalance and currency imbalance. The liquidity imbalance indicator evaluates the amount of additional funds required by economic agents in the coming year in order to fully repay short-term debt and pay interest on debt obligations. The currency imbalance indicator evaluates the total demand of various sectors of the economy for foreign currency, not secured by the flow of foreign currency debt assets, expected foreign currency operating income, or cash reserves. In contrast to the liquidity imbalance, the currency imbalance indicator includes both short-term and long-term assets and liabilities.
